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December 25, 2005

Merry Christmas! Ho ho ho!

It's Christmas again, and I'm sitting down to a delicious Chrismas meal!

This Christmas I'll be spending time with myself, followed by later being on my own. I was in America until the 23rd and didn't get a chance to get to the store until Christmas Eve, by which time everything was closed. Our cupboards and fridge are bare, but I managed to find, hidden amongst this summer's camping supplies, my salvation!

Christmas Dinner.jpg

It's not gourmet, but it'll keep me from starving until the stores open up on Tuesday.

Merry Christmas, everybody!

December 24, 2005

Happy Birthday, Mara!

Today is Mara's 30th birthday.

Here's a few snapshots from the last thirty years...

Mara as a baby.jpg Mara as a happy baby.jpg

Contrary to popular belief, Mara was once a baby. In fact, she was a pretty happy baby!

Mara with Maman and Mimi.jpg Mara and Me in a tub.jpg

She's was less than a year old when Mimi and Maman and Mara went on a picnic to the Governer's Mansion in the Falklands. I know they're at the Governer's Mansion because there are trees. Mara and I used to get along pretty well. In fact, we used to take baths together! Mara, I'm sorry I dropped you on your head. I felt so bad, I hid behind the couch. Also, you may not remember, but you liked splashing a lot.

Mara and Mimi.jpg Mara me and Rae.jpg

Once, we went to visit Mimi and she was teaching Mara how to walk out in the driveway. Mara really liked it! It smelled really good at Mimi & Poppop's house, magnolias and figs and pine trees. Mara used to walk like this with Papa, except she did it on his toes. He and Mimi and Maman would get a sore back, because you had to bend over to hold her hands. I tried to do it, but I wasn't strong enough yet. You can see that we all still get along in this photo of me, Mara and Rachael! :)

Mara Birthday 1.jpg Mara Birthday 2.jpg Mara Birthday 3.jpg

Mara was also a young girl between being a little baby and thirty. I don't know how old she is, but I'd say nine on the left, eleven in the middle and twelve on the right.

Mara Birthday 4.jpg Mara Birthday 5.jpg

The picture on the right is one of my all time favorite pictures of Mara.

Mara and Rae.jpg Mara talks to Kristen.jpg

The picture on the left is fantastic and another favorite. It looks like Rachael is barely able to contain the giggles and Mara is barely able to conceal her disapproval. On the right, Mara is talking to Kristen at my parent's house. She's pretty thin for thirty, eh?

Mara's Birthday.jpg

Happy birthday, Mara!

December 22, 2005

Scopes, part ii

The revenge of the anti-science movement

I'm chuffed to bits about the recent ruling in Pennsylvania in which a judge ruled that Intelligent Design isn't science but instead psuedoscience.

Intelligent Design theory and anything like it strikes at the very heart of science in a way that is easy to see but difficult against which to defend. Namely, it attempts to introduce into science the concept of the supernatural. Science is, has always been, and remains a study of natural phenomenon.

This is, in fact, the very essence of science.

To extend the concept of science to include the supernatural is as reactionary as it gets, taking us back to medieval times. We may just as well include in the curriculum that witchcraft can affect physical reality, that a bezoar neutralises poison, that our rulers have a divine right to rule and so on.

The argument that I hear most often from friends who support the idea of teaching Intelligent Design is that you can't prove a negative; i.e. that you can't prove that God doesn't exist, or that he wasn't involved in the creation of the universe. Actually, this is not true. The only things you can prove are negatives and the only way to prove them is using the scientific method.

The problem is that religious activists wish to include something which they claim cannot be subject to evidentiary rules in science. In other words, they want to include something which cannot be measured but instead requires faith.

This is damaging because it violates the entire principle of scientific endeavor. If any part of science can be ascribed to a cause that cannot be tested or measured in any way, then why not all of it? Why not argue that tiny, invisible fairies hold us to the ground rather than gravity or that instead of medecine we should rely on shamen?

The argument is the same and it's a sham.

The difficulty comes in that, if we cannot extend religion into science, then where does it fit? Many folks believe in some form of supernatural and rely on various teachings from someone they hold to be divinely inspired in their daily lives. The fact that science has won every single contest with religion has left a number of religious authorities concerned that God (or Yaweh or Allah or Vishnu or Ahura Mazda) are becoming metaphors for ignorance: God only rules in the ever narrowing gaps in scientific theory.

Their fears are well placed. Every advance that shines the light of evidence based study on an area hitherto the provence of religion has reduced religion's power and hold. For example, people are now permitted to put lightning rods on their homes and are not compelled to burn people claiming to be witches.

The role of God in Modern Society

Modern churches, in an attempt to find relevance, have targeted individuals using modern marketing methods, in an attempt to address those issues most relevant to them.

This has led to mega-churches, crusades, popular books, music and film.

Religion and God still has the power to do the things it has always done best: entertain and comfort. It has a place in the classroom - provided that you are studying entertainment or the business of providing comfort or, say, history, where religion has played a big role.

There is no room for the supernatural of any type in a biology class, a physics class, a chemistry class or anywhere that aims to improve our understanding of the natural world.

December 20, 2005

Here's lookin' at you, Chris!

Chris took this picture while I was reclining on the couch in our apartment.

Nathan's Head.jpg

Say it ain't so, Peter.

Back when we were young whippersnappers at Case, BJ and I had a radio show.

I interviewed a number of people for that show, including Peter Ferrara, who had written a book for the Cato Institute.

Welfare reform was a hot topic and I had asked him to give a phone interview talking about the basics of the issue for our listeners. Aid to Families with Dependent Children was having its parameters changed by the state in a money saving, AFDC recipient screwing kind of way and the debate in Ohio had degenerated into a shrill cacophany.

Peter Ferrara was a breath of fresh air. He had written a book on Social Security and was a clear thinking guy.

When we interviewed him, I was 18. To be honest, I was a sycophant in the interview and a bit startstruck. It was not my finest hour.

Nevertheless, he said some very clear headed things - like that women with dependent children should look to marriage to help sooth their woes and he also pointed out that individual stories can be moving, but to solve individual problems with policies that affect everyone are tragedies.

His thoughts on Social Security reform these days are still clear thinking, but he's become a one note piano (personal accounts, personal accounts, personal accounts). Personal accounts probably are the solution, but for God's sake repackage them.

In any event, the reason for the title of today's post is that he has admitted to taking money from indicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. This same admission has brought low Doug Bandow, a fellow at Cato.

I don't know when he took money from Jack Abramoff to write articles that favored Jack's clients. The worst would be that Peter broke Cato's rules or took money from Jack Abramoff while he was an Assistant Attorney General or while he was working for President Reagan. The best would be that he did so while working for IPI.

Either way, I'd prefer to know up front who has paid to put information in front of my eyes and I'm disappointed that Peter Ferrara didn't feel that this worth mentioning to the folks who read what he has written.

On the other hand, it does pretty much mean that, unless he finds a way to rehabilitate his image, he'll be relegated to the dustbin of history. At this point, he's pretty much stated he's a whore and will shill for anyone with cash. Of course, he says he'll only prostitute himself long as he's already interested in the topic.

Riiiiiight. Sure. A coupla thousand bones for an essay might spark his interest, since we already know he's the kind of guy that would take a lobbyist's money, write an essay favorable to that lobbyist's clients and submit it as if it was an uninfluenced, unadulterated opinion.

Peter Ferrara's protestations sound like a woman accused of prostitution who says: "But they were all so good looking I would have slept with them anyway."

For shame, Peter, for shame.

December 18, 2005

Ms. Hittinger was your age once

It's true!

And I can prove it. Look!

Well, okay, she was your age if you five, six, seven, eight or nine.

Happy Birthday to Me!

Yesterday, I turned 33.

Maman made me pot roast and Papa made marble cake with white frosting - his favorite! :)

I'll be headed back to Edinburgh in a few days - and perhaps back to D.C. tonight or tomorrow and it was really nice to have a birthday dinner with my parents. I haven't done that for ten years.

I usually forget it's my birthday. I'm don't remember dates well at all. I could never remember Jen's birthday - and then Liza's birthday was two days before or two days after or something like that, and I could never remember that, and when I'd invariably get it wrong, she'd get a wounded look and say: "No, that's your old girlfriend's birthday!"

Monty Python lives

So I went outside to get the paper and walked past my father's cherry tree. We bought him a cherry tree maybe fifteen years ago to replace the cherry tree that had brown rot and was dying.

At first glance, I thought there was some kind of bird that gripped upside down in it. Then I thought: there are no birds like that in Ohio. I looked again and thought there might be a dead bird in it.

As it turned out he was just pining for the fjords.

DeadDuck.jpg

Beautiful plumage, eh, the Norwegian Blue?

December 17, 2005

Mimi and Suzanne

I'm guessing they are, anyway. My grandmother looks about thirteen and petulant.

Again, Mara, will you aid in the translation? What does this writing on the back say?

Maman's Pictures_16.jpg Maman's Pictures_17.jpg

December 16, 2005

What does this say?

My grandfather gave my grandmother 100 Francs, with a note written on it in French.

When Mimi (my grandmother) was on her deathbed, she called my mother in and handed her this 100 Franc note and told her to keep it.

I'd really like to know what it says.

100 Francs.jpg

December 15, 2005

Mimi and my mother

While I've been home, I've been rummaging through the attic, where my mother has saved every single item that has entered our house over the past quarter century, using patented technology that transformed our attic into a TARDIS. It's bigger on the inside than it could possibly ever be looking from the outside.

One of the joys of this is being handed the old leather and iron luggage - vintage 1930s - that had in it thousands of photos. Some of them are quite old, dating back as far as 1914, when my great-grandfather was a French naval officer during WW I.

Anyway, here are some for you to look through. First, there's a picture of my mother and grandmother, then there's a photo of my great-grandfather, leaning up against a cannon or cart of some kind.

Mimi&Maman.jpg


Grand Pere.jpg

December 13, 2005

The price of goods

Prices are magical. The concept of prices, not nearly as widespread as you might think, is, in my personal opinion the single largest advance in human thinking ever made.

It beats all others - the wheel, Expressionist painting, the concept of a higher power, electricity, the light bulb...the idea that things have costs and these costs can be represented by a single price, that the two are inextricably linked makes nearly all other advances either inevitable or irrelevant.

I mention this because Maryland and Virginia are getting serious about soliciting private companies to put in place and operate private roads.

Now, students of public choice will remember that roads are a textbook example - literally, in every textbook, used as an example - of a public good alongside the common defense and monuments. The idea of a private road is an oxymoron. You shouldn't ever have private roads.

Public goods are defined in dry but well accepted terms as those things which meet the following criteria:

1. No one can be excluded from it's use.
2. The costs and benefits of a public good are purely external to the market.
3. The costs of each additional user is vanishingly small.

These are actually very shaded statements; the realm of what constitutes a public good versus a private good gets very murky.

When we're talking about roads, a few things have conspired to make roads less public and more private.

The first is the advent of technology that makes preventing the use of a road easier. Technology, especially easy automated toll collection technology, like the Pennsylvania Turnpike's EasyPass system, for example, have made it much less expensive - for drivers as well as for toll collectors - to collect and pay tolls.

The second is the that the vanishing marginal cost of each user is no longer true for some public roads. Congestion has put an end to that. As with many things governed by chaos dynamics, traffic levels have a tipping point. Below a certain traffic density and the system is in a laminar state: traffic flows easily, with cars able to move and maneuver effectively and at speed. If you add one car to a road at the boundary between laminar and non-laminar flow, it will slow to a standstill. By the same token, if you take a road that is laminar at a certain traffic density and change the boundary conditions - say with an accident - then the road my push through the laminar boundary and become chaotic or turbulent. Because of this effect, it means that the marginal cost of each user is no longer zero. In fact, perversely (and this is what makes this issue interesting, at least for me), all of the cars on the road up to the one at the tipping point have a marginal cost of zero. All of the cars after the car at the tipping point have a marginal cost of zero. But that one special car, the one that holds the special person whose just lucky enough to push the beltway over the edge on that one given day - the marginal cost of that person can be measured in the tens of millions of dollars.

If we were to attempt to eliminate the externalities of this action (a favorite activity of economists), then we would have to impose a fee on the one person who caused the roads to tip from laminar to chaotic equal the the cost of the time of all of the people who were delayed by the traffic jam. This feels unfair to me - mostly because we don't know if it will be us, and it feels as though the person who was on the on ramp right in front of the poor, unlucky bastard who gets hit with the fine must be almost equally guilty - but in fact, a few utterly life destroying, bankrupting fines would be the most efficient way of getting the information into the marketplace about the cost of traffic.

Of course, these fines can only really be imposed by the government, which really only has cognizence over the delivery of public goods, which roads aren't if they get congested, so they should be handed over to the private sector whereever congestion is a problem.

Which brings me to the connection between congestion, non linear physics, roads, the upcoming plans of Maryland and Virginia and the price of goods.

In this article in the Washington Post, critics of the plan have complained that it will create a two tiered system, one in which people who can pay will to avoid gridlock and people who can't pay end up stuck in gridlock.

Of course. That's the point - the incentives that result from different prices will more efficiently allocate our scarce resources than any other mechanism we have available. Thank heaven for different prices and different abilities to pay.

December 7, 2005

Global Climate Change

Aesop told us a story about a boy and a wolf.

Last night, Chris and I outlined a similar story, except in real life.

The most recent edition of the Economist, they outline the threat to North-West Europe from changes in the ocean currents; you can find it here (might require that you view some kind of ad to get to the article, but it's worth it).

While the story itself is narrowly drawn to pertain specifically to the effects on North-West Europe of changes in the Deep Southerly Return Flow, the very fact of this effect gives impetus to the charge that, as a species, we are poor stewards of the earth.

In 1957, 1981, 1992, 1998 and 2004, teams of scientists measured the flow of water in the Atlantic Conveyor Belt. The flow of water in 1957, 1981 and 1992 was consistent with a 70-year cycle of ebbing and flowing volumes that was put forth by Dr. Michael Schlesinger.

In 1995, Dr. Schlesinger wrote a number of papers, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research and the NATO ASI Series I, "Global Environmental Change." In these papers, he outlined a 65-70 year cycle during which the the Atlantic Conveyor strengthen and weaken.

Professor Harry Bryden of the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton (this one, not the one in the States), wrote an article which suggests that the flow of water is ebbing counter-cyclically. It's doing something it shouldn't be doing. The result of this is likely to be a dramatic drop in temperature for North-West Europe.

Now, Professor Bryden has put the usual caveats around his research - we're not sure, more study is needed, we need more money - and even got the BBC to put in a subtle plug for him saying that his "ships can go to gather their data as often as finance allows." But the fact remains that this is pretty serious business, with the predicted fall in temperature in North-West Europe ranging between four and six degrees Celsius. That's a whole lotta chilly. With Edinburgh's temperatures already ranging from a balmy 15 in July to a snuggle up inside 3 in January and Febuary - and only averages 8 degrees year round - a 6 degree drop is a big, big change. That's a 2 degree centigrade average year round, giving Edinburgh roughly the same climate as Tromso. I love Tromso, don't get me wrong, but if I wanted to live there, I would.

So, besides threatening to be at the door, where does the wolf come in?

Enviromental activists, stuck on the ideas of the greenhouse effect and global warming, have cried about a wolf for so long that the general public in innured to the call.

The effects of another mini-ice age in northern and western Europe are wide ranging, and the solutions are politically unpalatable. For a start, the developed economies in those regions will have to dramatically increase the amount of oil they import. Fishing will become much more difficult and expensive. Farming will be as viable in Britain as it is in northern Norway today and Norway will become about as inhabitable as Carey Island, off Greenland.

Oil will be much more difficult to gather off in the North Sea and around the British Isles, tropical storm energy will increase, the American coast will be a much more dangerous place to live, etc.

The solutions are politically unpalatable because they involve things like farming and energy reform. Effectively, all farming subsidy needs to stop. Most of Scotland (and the rest of Northern Europe) should be replanted with pine trees. Nuclear power becomes the only option to provide enough power to prevent Europe from literally freezing to death.

Of course, Aesop's fable isn't the only story relevant here. Euripides wrote about another famous person who cried out against impending doom and was roundly ignored: Cassandra.

In both cases, though, the outcome was the same. The frustrating part for me will be watching the inevitable long march in of our disaster and the foolish, unhelpful suggestions that politicians will spout.

Any thoughts, guys?

December 5, 2005

Travelling through CDG airport

I bumped into a teacher who had just been in Morocco; she lived there 30 years ago. Do not be fooled by the stern mien; she was kind and gracious.

Anne, with an 'e.'

You should have seen the look on her face when I showed her she was on the Internet!

Gosh, I do love technology.

December 2, 2005

Thomas Calder and Ingrida Dzonsone

My mother has recovered greatly; she's up and walking around, the pathology report has come back about as good as we might have hoped - and we are holding out high hopes for her recovery.

There are many people who have helped me over the past three weeks, but, because I'm a selfish favoritist, I'm going to thank just two right now.

Contrary to the title, the two people are Ingrida and David, Thomas' father.

David is probably my best friend in Edinburgh. He's a clever, straight-talking, down to earth man whom I've worked with for about five years, off and on.

Thomas get's a show in the title because I'm going to show you a picture of him. David sent me an email nearly every day when I was in the States. His message was always hopeful and kind - and he helped keep me grounded. I'm grateful.

Also, he sent me pictures of his son and beautiful wife Jaime - and I showed them to my mother, who was greatly cheered by the fact that I had friends that had families, rather than just living in a fool's paradise. She thought two pictures were especially cute; you'll see them here.

Second, I'd like to thank Ingrida. She's a godsend. She's also blushing as I write this, right now. She makes me smile and laugh and called me, via Skype, until the BT broke the Internet pipe to my house (damn you, BT!).

David, Ingrida - Thank you.

Okay, here's a picture of Thomas, David's insanely well-behaved son, at the dinner table, and then in the Scott monument with his mommy, Jaime.

Thomas Calder.jpg

Jaime and Thomas.jpg

Also, we have a picture of Ingrida in a silly hat!

Ingrida in a Silly Hat1.jpg