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Global Climate Change

Aesop told us a story about a boy and a wolf.

Last night, Chris and I outlined a similar story, except in real life.

The most recent edition of the Economist, they outline the threat to North-West Europe from changes in the ocean currents; you can find it here (might require that you view some kind of ad to get to the article, but it's worth it).

While the story itself is narrowly drawn to pertain specifically to the effects on North-West Europe of changes in the Deep Southerly Return Flow, the very fact of this effect gives impetus to the charge that, as a species, we are poor stewards of the earth.

In 1957, 1981, 1992, 1998 and 2004, teams of scientists measured the flow of water in the Atlantic Conveyor Belt. The flow of water in 1957, 1981 and 1992 was consistent with a 70-year cycle of ebbing and flowing volumes that was put forth by Dr. Michael Schlesinger.

In 1995, Dr. Schlesinger wrote a number of papers, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research and the NATO ASI Series I, "Global Environmental Change." In these papers, he outlined a 65-70 year cycle during which the the Atlantic Conveyor strengthen and weaken.

Professor Harry Bryden of the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton (this one, not the one in the States), wrote an article which suggests that the flow of water is ebbing counter-cyclically. It's doing something it shouldn't be doing. The result of this is likely to be a dramatic drop in temperature for North-West Europe.

Now, Professor Bryden has put the usual caveats around his research - we're not sure, more study is needed, we need more money - and even got the BBC to put in a subtle plug for him saying that his "ships can go to gather their data as often as finance allows." But the fact remains that this is pretty serious business, with the predicted fall in temperature in North-West Europe ranging between four and six degrees Celsius. That's a whole lotta chilly. With Edinburgh's temperatures already ranging from a balmy 15 in July to a snuggle up inside 3 in January and Febuary - and only averages 8 degrees year round - a 6 degree drop is a big, big change. That's a 2 degree centigrade average year round, giving Edinburgh roughly the same climate as Tromso. I love Tromso, don't get me wrong, but if I wanted to live there, I would.

So, besides threatening to be at the door, where does the wolf come in?

Enviromental activists, stuck on the ideas of the greenhouse effect and global warming, have cried about a wolf for so long that the general public in innured to the call.

The effects of another mini-ice age in northern and western Europe are wide ranging, and the solutions are politically unpalatable. For a start, the developed economies in those regions will have to dramatically increase the amount of oil they import. Fishing will become much more difficult and expensive. Farming will be as viable in Britain as it is in northern Norway today and Norway will become about as inhabitable as Carey Island, off Greenland.

Oil will be much more difficult to gather off in the North Sea and around the British Isles, tropical storm energy will increase, the American coast will be a much more dangerous place to live, etc.

The solutions are politically unpalatable because they involve things like farming and energy reform. Effectively, all farming subsidy needs to stop. Most of Scotland (and the rest of Northern Europe) should be replanted with pine trees. Nuclear power becomes the only option to provide enough power to prevent Europe from literally freezing to death.

Of course, Aesop's fable isn't the only story relevant here. Euripides wrote about another famous person who cried out against impending doom and was roundly ignored: Cassandra.

In both cases, though, the outcome was the same. The frustrating part for me will be watching the inevitable long march in of our disaster and the foolish, unhelpful suggestions that politicians will spout.

Any thoughts, guys?

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Comments

Shhhhh, Nathan, you can't say that here; the CIA is watching you. OH, right they published their findings on the environment a year or so ago in strong agreement with you. No, big brother, I can't think of anything that will solve the worlds problems short of marching every owner of vanity plates over a cliff like the lemmings that they are. Very unique, vain lemmings, nonetheless.

I think we should all agree to breathe less. Start with something simple, like just holding your breath for a few seconds every third time you inhale.

Inhale
Exhale
Inhale
Exhale
Inhale
Hold...1...2...3...
Exhale
repeat

Assuming the 3 seconds saves about one full breath, it means we are reducing carbon dioxide production by as much as 25%.

This will also help the human race prepare for the day we have to terraform Mars and exist in the thinner atmosphere.

We also need to do something about cow farts. It is an issue our politicians are not addressing. All that methane wasted. In all the discussion about renewable energy, why aren't the environmentalists pushing cow farts? Because the enviros are bought and paid for by the powerful solar panel and wind turbine lobby, that's why!

Some people think that the best solution to a problem is destroying it or making it dissapear, but some times thats a hard thing to do, and you need to adapt to the new situation like it or not.

I vote for more hair. Yeah! more hair, all over the body, that should keep everybody warm there. I can picture the fashion magazines titles, "Hair is in" "Hairshon", or some books "How to comb the missing link in you"

I think the boy who cried wolf is a more accurate label. Cassandra's prophecies, though disbelieved, were always accurate. At least part of the skepticism over this sort of thing is driven by memories of the fear-mongering environmental movement of the '70s. The dire predictions of doom by Paul Ehrlich, the Club of Rome, etc., didn't pan out.

Now, that's not to say that climate change in general, or the possible disruption of the North Atlantic Conveyor in particular, isn't a real phenomenon, but the point of wolf fable is that once you get a rep as an alarmist, people don't believe you whether or not you're correct.

It's funny that I'll be able to guilt-trip my children one day by saying: "When I was a youngster in homeland Latvija I had to take a physics test when it was -26 C and the pipes had burst in my school!" (for greater affect, say with heavy Russian accent). Although if I have kids in Britain, perhaps one day they too will experience something similar. Yikes.

The boy who cried wolf was right once, the one time it mattered. How unfortunate that he had lied so often.

It is our responsibility to be on guard for that behaviour and to not act like the villagers. Instead of allowing ourselves to suffer from alarm fatigue, we should carefully assess the information available to us. I disregard most of the statements of the mainstream environmental movement, although it sure looks like there is a looming environmental challenge that has powerful repurcussions for the U.S., NATO, Europe and the war on irreconcilable radical Islam.

Good to see you back, F.S.

Don't let them dupe you. The real reason that nobody, by which I mean politicians, are raising an eyebrow in alarm, especially in the states, is because they're all radical Christians. Their beliefs go something to the effect of, the sooner humanity causes its own holocaust, the sooner Christ has to return! And, America is paying off Europe and encouraging people to live a life of reckless hedonism. Oh, and they're trying to dupe the smarter Asians by infecting them with passive Buddhism and hateful Islam in order to confuse the world. As for Africa, well, to quote my older brother, "Unfortunately, no one really cares about brown people." Hokay, so then California breaks off from the U.S. and goes down to hang out with Australia:)

Or, maybe I'm confusing the conspiracy, somehow I've left out J.F.K.

-on to the serious post-

In order to effectively fight a potential collapse I suspect that something on the scale of wholesale rejection of neo-liberalism is required. We need to find a way to convince the world that television, drugs, and the entire whiny middle class are a doping mechanism that are, by in large, keeping people who are capable of unique and productive actions demure and inactive. Which means that we need to convince people in developing countries that they can be content without largescale development and convince people in developed countries that they will actually be happier if they have less.
In other words, we need to
a. awaken the masses
b. halt the materialistic aspects of globalism, especially the ones that say that status=possession of stuff
c. convince people that they need a radical change to alter the situation.

It seems to me that the largest problem that we are facing here is different from, "We might recreate massive glaciers in Northern Europe." Though it includes it. Rather, on a long term scale, if people are injecting even 1% more pollutant than the environment can absorb we will overpollute the world. Pollutant, in this case, is anything that cannot be immediately reabsorbed by the environment before more of that substance is introduced to it. Eventually, this buildup of pollutants, much like a bacterial culture, will become toxic to either us or to the balance of ecosystems.
For example, consider the use of fossil fuels and the carbon cycle. The carbon cycle takes a very long time to distill carbon from the environment and return it to an inert state in the ground and not in the atmosphere. By digging them up we are creating a log jam of carbon in the atmosphere. There is a sudden influx of carbon that cannot be removed (see earlier in the post). Now, we have to ask ourselves what geology has told us about the history of the Earth and what type of weather patterns persisted with what atmospheres. Effectively, mankind is fighting the effects of entropy (which manifests itself in eutrofication, in this case) and causing the environment of the planet to shift. What I am concerned about is that, at some point in the future, humanity will push the atmosphere to a state that is essentially primitive enough at a rapid enough pace that there will be a large scale snap in the ability of organisms on the planet to function under the conditions. This may not trigger another mass extinction but the results could be very dramatic. Perhaps, before adaptive radiation and a significantly reduced human population could rebound, another ice age would be triggered, or a quick and intense global warming that melts both caps and turns the equator into pretty much a huge desert. Despite the continued existence of humanity, the rebuilding of a habital planet would be left to custodians that didn't realize the significance of their actions until it was too late. Will we see changes to such a degree in our lifetime? Probably not. But, I am reminded of a Native American quote that I found insightful, "That which we do to the earth we also do to our children."

When one thinks of the 'masses' - think of that term "mass" = huge quantity. Huge quantities do not move in one large surge of power. Everyone, no matter how alarmist people get, is not going to suddenly stand up and jump into action. It has to be by increments (unless we're talking very sudden mass devastation that has already taken place).

And those increments best be wrapped in a very trendy package if people are to implement them.

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