The Definite Article

I said after Firefly went off the air that I was never going to watch television again, not that I watched much anyway. And I haven't. I still don't own a television and never have.

And I was in denial about watching television, but really, I'm doing it.

I'm talking, of course, about Lost.

Last weekend, I drove out to Dunbar, which is a sunny town on the Scottish coast, home of an ancient port and fish landing and also two of my favorite people, David and Jaime Calder. They had invited me out to come and stay, have a bit of dinner and play with Thomas a bit, drink some fantastic wine and chew the fat.

For Christmas, Jaime had bought David the first twelve episodes of Lost on DVD. He talked the series up a bit and then loaned them to me.

I respect David's opinion, so if he said it was worth watching, I figured I'd give it a try.

Whoah. What a ride! I sat down to watch the pilot on my Mac last Tuesday night, with the intention of watching just one episode, blogging a bit then getting some sleep.

At 0730 the next morning, the caffeine jitters were kicking in and I was tooling around the web seeing where I could download the thirteenth episode, having just watched all twelve in sequence, cursing my beloved Mac every four episodes for not being able to eject a DVD more rapidly.

It really is that good. The character development is unparalleled, the plot is spooky but suspension of disbelief is possible, what the Hell are polar bears doing on a tropical Island and was that a piece of construction equipment or a monster?

I'm loving the show; long may it continue.

Posted by Nate at 4:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (9) | TrackBacks (0)

I think that a large violent conflagration is on the horizon and it is most likely to involve India and China.

The reasons are thus:

1. India and China are attempting to industrialise. Both economies are growing rapidly (I've already talked a bit about China's runaway economic growth). As they make further attempts to undergo an industrial revolution, both will go through environmental upheavals that may well be unacceptable to already industrialised nations who are attempting to reduce the effects of industrial output on the environment. The kerfuffle over the Kyoto Protocol largely stemmed from the fact that the U.S. didn't want to be held to a standard that wasn't going to apply to China, India and Brazil. It's not clear how to transform a third world economy into a first world economy without a massive amount of pollution.

2. India, China and Indonesia have a coming sex gap crisis. The ratio of women to men usually holds at a natural 51% women. India is more like 47%, mostly due to the abortion of sex determined foetuses and infanticide. China is the same; Indonesia is worse. While this troubles me personally (I rather enjoy there being more women than men), the effects on the state of mind of India and China in twenty years, when there will be tens of millions of men of marrying age for whom there will be no one to marry nor with whom to make a family, are potentially catastrophic. I expect that there will be violence.

3. The expanse of irreconcilable forms of Islam continues. In these societies, again, women are treated as second class citizens. At the risk of sounding Victorian, I believe that women have a civilising influence on the men around them. When denied of a voice, they can no longer temper the vituperations of the bitter and what emerges is often unalloyed bile. Witness the words of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; it would matter less if he was just some anti-Semite spouting off, but he's a head of state, so calls to wipe Israel off the map are none to clever.

4. The U.S. will not want to quietly surrender hegemony to China. It's in a state of denial at the moment, not wanting to acknowledge the rapidly approaching economic eclipse, but once it is fully realized, America may well start pushing issues like greater Taiwanese independence. Given the States' history with international diplomacy of late, this is likely to be either cackhanded or hamfisted or both, more likely to provoke than accomplish any kind of policy goal.

A war between China and India is not unthinkable and has the potential to draw in an enormous number of nearby nations. Pakistan may very well take advantage of the distraction to seize Kashmir, for instance.

Posted by Nate at 11:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)

Golden Wonder makes potato chips and other snacks. They are also closing. For those of you unfamiliar with the term, administration is the same as receivership or Chapter 13 bankruptcy proceedings. Golden Wonder is a privately held company.

For those of you in Cleveland, they're not much bigger than Tom's.

The story is notable specifically for a few lines down near the end of the article:

Usdaw divisional officer Gary Holz said: "The union was only informed today that the announcement was being made and as you can imagine our members have been left absolutely devastated.

"Many of them are in tears and are wandering round in shock trying to come to terms with losing their jobs despite having done nothing wrong except work hard to keep this plant alive."

First off, there is no easy way in most industrial plants to feed back to decision making management ideas about improvement of the operation. Plant managers are going to be disinclined to listen to workers from the line in any event, so such feedback mechanisms would be wasted.

Second, I'd doubt that there are too many workers at the Golden Wonder factory who are skilled labor. Factory jobs tend to not be skilled labor; just about anyone can do them.

Third, it's better for all workers in Britain if inefficient places close and more efficient ones buy the resources of the old plant and re-use them more efficiently. That's how economies grow; people stop making candles and start making lightbulbs.

I'm not arguing that widespread unemployment can't happen; it does happen. But labor mobility and a churn of resource from inefficient industry to efficient industry keeps structural unemployment low. So the folks who are devestated have the story back to front. They should be happy that their plant is closing first, because it gives them a head start on finding new and better jobs.

Posted by Nate at 10:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBacks (0)

On the 20th of December, the BBC reported that China's GDP had exceeded that of Italy and was headed for UK territory.

The official figures released from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China revised the previous growth rate from 9% to 25.8%, a jump of 16.8%, giving them an economy with a value of $1.45 trillion. Various sources place the actual figure perhaps 15% or even 20% higher again, because the NBS frequently underreports small and medium sized enterprises.

Also, I have bought a car. Pictures below.

In addition to failing to report on small and medium sized industrial endeavours, nearly all service sector work has, until know, gone unreported. A 16.8% revision is roughly $245 billion; nearly all of it came from the service sector.

Here's the skinny, for those of you who may not have been following at home:

1. The Chinese currency is pegged to a specific target by the Chinese government. They are holding it artificially weak in order make Chinese imports seem less expensive. It's working. If the currency were allowed to float, it would likely appreciate by roughly 230%, making the Chinese economy $3.35 trillion dollars, third behind the United States ($10 trillion) and Japan ($4 trillion).

2. The Chinese economy is growing at a greater rate than anyone else in the G8. Their economy is set to double three years if the current pace continues, but will more likely double in five years, making them the largest economy in the world within the next decade. If the pace continues, they will be larger than the rest of the world combined in a little over 16 years.

3. If this website is legible to you, then you have less to worry about. If it isn't, check out these guys.

China is set to become the dominant force on Earth for the forseeable future, the Middle Kingdom reborn.

If you've got ideas, speak up now.

Finally, here are a couple of pictures of my absolutely lovely new Jag. They say that as men grow older, they become their fathers. Well, this was my Papa's favorite car for a long time when I was growing up (well, it was a tie between this car and, unfathomably, a Bonneville).

This is a Jaguar X-Type 2.5 litre SE and it's the smoothest, most well behaved car I've ever had the pleasure of owning.

P.S. Maman, you were right. It's not that hard shifting with the left hand.

Posted by Nate at 9:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (12) | TrackBacks (0)