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March 28, 2007

Threats, risk and fright

I was working my way through Techmeme yesterday when I had one of those sharp, jarring intellectual moments, where a number of memories suddenly reinforced each other.

They were:

1. A conversation with Mara
2. Of Paradise and Power, by Robert Kagan
3. Bruce Schneier's Blog
4. Kathy Sierra's recent experiences
5. Mara's experiences in Israel. My sister is a very powerful influence on my perceptions of the world.
6. My own experiences with death threats, the archives of which have been regrettably lost when I was forced to rebuild this site from scratch in 2003.

14 years ago, my then 17 year old sister came to visit me on the campus of my University. I was really excited to see her; I wanted to show off this cool new thing called a "homepage," a forerunner of the blogs I now administrate.

We went for a walk along Euclid Ave.; I needed to get some cash, and there was an ATM on the corner. She grew increasingly uncomfortable as we walked further down Euclid Ave. I didn't notice. It wasn't until we were at the ATM and taking out cash that I noticed that she was looking nervous. Which led to an exchange similar to the following:

Me: "What's up?"

Mara: "I don't like it here. It's run down, it's dark and there are dangerous looking people walking around."

Me: "Oh, come on! It's fine!"

Mara: "You only say that because you're big and a boy."

I was gobsmacked. It hadn't occurred to me that my size (6'4" and 17 stone) would have any kind of impact on how I viewed a situation. I mean, you're the same person on the inside all the time, right?

Well, no, and it had been intuitively obvious to my sister, who is less thick than I am.

Fast forward ten years later. The Twin Towers have been taken down by Islamic terrorists and topping the best seller lists is a book on international relations called Of Paradise and Power, by Rober Kagan, a fellow for the Carnegie Institute for Peace.

In this book, he outlines the Bear in the Woods theory of international engagement. The international diplomatic community could have skipped ten years of confusion had they just taken the time to consult my sister, but they got there nevertheless.

The Bear in the Woods theory, crudely summarised, is as follows: a man eating bear living in the same woods as you looks very different to you if you have a high powered rifle than it does if you have a bow and arrow or a hunting knife.

What's the result?

Well the result is that, without any need for deep cultural analysis, we can predict with some certainty that the U.S., with the best equipped and most expensive armed forces in the world, is going to be far more likely to attempt to deal with threats than Europe, which spends so little on defence it could easily be conquered by a highly motivated troup of well-armed Brownie Scouts.

But people in Europe still feel secure, in part because of differences in media organisation and a populace innoculated against jingoistic warmongering after millenia of conflict.

Which is precisely what Bruce Schneier discusses in his excellent paper on the feeling of security.

The reality of security is a mathematical exercise, one in which my colleagues and I are well practised. As both of my regular readers (Hi, FS! Hi, Maman!) will know, I spend a lot of tiime thinking about whether it actually makes you safer to be unable to park near the airport or if it just makes you feel safer.

Bruce Schneier lays out the difference between security theatre and security. He also begins to explore how to change your perceptions about security and to bring your perceptions in line with reality.

Kathy Sierra has had a pretty horrific experience. I'll leave it to the reader to take a moment to read her most recent post; I feel for her. She's frightened at the moment and has cancelled a recent trip to a tech conference to stay at home with the doors locked.

I've spent some time thinking about this and my sister's experience in Israel.

My sister and her husband were refugees from Israel's war with Lebanon last summer and spent six weeks living with me in Edinburgh. When they went back home, even though there was the occasional Katyusha rocket hitting the middle of their street (detailed mapping information removed to prevent targetting), they still went out, went to the local cafe for lunch - which they did even after it was blown up by a suicide bomber and then rebuilt.

Were they afraid? I'll let her comment on this, but certainly after a period of time they weren't bothered at all. Frustrated, maybe, that Haifa, a city of relative peace in Israel, had been targetted specifically because Muslims, Jews, Christians and Bahai's get along well and this belies the Kharajite and Wahabist philosophies.

I've also gotten death threats, all from people angry about my stance on feminism (to summarize: "There are better ways to acheive equality than philosophies which alienate and marginalise 49% of the human race."). They were pretty graphic and went into excruciating detail.

I found them funny. Why?

Well, I was armed to the teeth. I own a home in Virginia. In that home is a veritable arsenal of weaponry, including sniper rifles, shotguns, assault rifles and handguns. I'm a former Marine and know how to use them. Also, I'm single and have no children.

So the threats didn't bother me. Because a bear in the woods looks different to me than it does to someone in a different situation - in this case, a woman with children.

Kathy, I hope the police/FBI catch the perptrator and you can get on with your life.